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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the country's largest city at a time when the former president has vowed to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the path that the party, struggling in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

National Implications

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, achieve a surprising comeback victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of cautious, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has faced difficulties in the final phase, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd